In the world of vintage watches, there is nobody who is more important than him.
He is an advisor to the biggest collectors in the world. Royal houses come to him with near impossible demands (finding a $2m Patek Philippe within 24hrs). He holds the most successful auctions six times a year. Watching him perform on the rostrum during an auction is like watching Sean Connery play Bond in the 1960s.
It just is perfection.
Anybody in possession of an important vintage wrist- or pocketwatch will go to one man right now. Mr Aurel Bacs.
He is the most successful auctioneer in the world right now. What he has achieved within 10 years at Christies is nothing short of exceptional. Prior to him starting, Christies had $8m in annual watch sales. Today, he can sell a single watch for $5m. Annual sales last year were an outstanding $126m, a new record for Christie’s and, in fact, for anyone else too.
We had a chance to catch up with Mr. Bacs. It is a long interview but a worthwhile read.
LME: How do you see the market developing in 2013?
I would predict that we will see a continuation of the trend of ever increasing demand for quality (by quality I mean brand name, model, rarity, complication, original condition and provenance). If the score of each of these “disciplines” is near a perfect 10, then this will mean more watches that will sell in $1m+ range.
For 2013, I do not necessarily see a substantial increase in new buyers, but rather expect that existing collectors will be further increasing their eagerness to buy only the best quality there is. On the selling side I fear to see fewer sellers of top quality pieces because of the increasing difficulty of replacing the watch once it is sold.
It is a simple rule: Few sellers and many buyers for the few good watches still available will mean that new records will be broken soon.
But if less people sell their watches, down the road for whatever reason big collections will eventually come on the market. Would that not cause prices to fall?
No! The current market, because of the impressive number of collectors worldwide, can easily absorb any of the large collections.
I personally know most of the world’s best collections and there would be substantial demand should any of those collections come on the market in the future. We are confident that 2013 will be a good year for watch auctions.
Despite a move to tangible assets by wealthy collectors, what and who is driving the watch market. Is it collectors, investors or both?
The driving force in our market are the collectors. Having said this, I think the borders between investor and collector are becoming a thin line. Why?
If a collector owns a steel mint condition Rolex for CHF 500’000, he will also one day consider the opportunity cost of that money. And anyone buying (for the sheer love of owning it!) such a watch will at this price level also think for a few moments what it is worth in 5 years.
This consideration doesn’t turn him into an investor, but the financials play a more important role today.I really think it’s the collectors driving this market out of passion for collecting rather than viewing it as an investment.
Which brands do you see as strong in 2013?
Patek Philippe will continue to be strong, but Rolex will write headlines too.
Last year there was phenomenal interest in vintage Rolex watches. There were many records set for Rolex (like the 6538 Rolex Submariner which set a new world record for any Submariner ever sold at auction).
Overall, there was a new level of bidding for Rolex in 2012 that was unprecedented. However, I can see a broadening of the list of names. Examples include Vacheron Constantin which will perform well. So will Jaeger LeCoultre for many of their most historic models. Also vintage Panerai diving watches will continue to be sought after.
Any brands in the vintage area offering particular value right now?
Every vintage brand offers value.
The reason is: production numbers are low. Production numbers 60 years ago are a fraction of what they are today.
Craftsmanship also was much higher 50-70 years ago because the human factor in production played a much larger role. Also the patina found on a vintage wristwatch – how do you value that? Patina is something that you simply cannot replicate. I think generally speaking that almost any vintage watch offers good opportunities – as long as it has survived in good, original condition.
In cars provenance, originality and rarity are key factors to consider when buying a car. Is it similar for watches?
Well to start with, the name of the brand plays a key role. Patek Philippe and Rolex will always attract interest. Second the model also plays a role.
Look at Ferrari. Why is the 250 model line more sought after than a 330 TC? Why are V12 Ferrari’s more sought after than others? So, in watches a split-second chronograph will always be more collectable than a “normal” watch. The third factor factor is Rarity. Fourth – originality is also important, in fact, more than ever before. A Patek Philippe or Rolex with a replacement dial is always going to be less valuable than one with an original dial.
Lastly, provenance (as with cars) is an important factor.
My blog is about watches and cars. You like both areas personally as well. Tell us more.
To me, cars and watches are the two most beautiful usable objects.
Originally, they were designed to fulfill a purpose. Here watches and cars are different to art. In the beginning cars were about bringing someone from point A to point B. But the purpose soon became more than simply being usable and useful.
Cars and watches are about engineering, design and craftsmanship, but then they became a work of art themselves. My father was always passionate and well educated in cars and watches, a watch aficionado and a petrol-head at the same time.
In the 1960s, he also participated as a gentlemen driver in races. However in those days racing was really dangerous and there came a time when he turned into a collector of vintage cars and stopped racing. So, understandably, my father played a big role in my love for watches and cars.
You have been now head of Christies for over 10 years. What still excites you about your job?
Each watch I obtain for an auction is like a new adventure.
I have sold 10’000s of watches but have rarely sold the same watch twice, only a small percent of watches have returned. So every day is full of surprises.
I love what I do and even after 10 years, I am still learning new things day by day, discovering new models or variants. A good example is the recently sold 6538 Tiffany-signed Rolex which set a new world-record.
At first, upon receiving the watch, I was skeptical about its originality. But upon viewing the watch, looking at the dial, the patina and many late hours of research, we were certain that the watch was most likely unique and indeed all correct.
We are now in 2020. What does the auction business look like? Will Patek still dominate the high end?
Just like we have the 10 biggest impressionist painters, the 10 greatest car manufacturers, in watches you have many great names of manufacturers with a rich history – this does not change overnight.
So, yes in 2020 you will still have Patek Philippe up there and setting auction records. But will other brands catch up (like Rolex)? Sure – why not.
However, I think the more interesting question to ask is the following: how will collecting itself evolve?
China and India by 2020 will be a major force in watch collecting. I also expect the number of buyers to be a multiple of what it is today. The level of knowledge that collectors will bring to table will be a also grow exponentially. In terms of platforms we will see more online bidding. We will have more auctions days – perhaps timed auctions (on a given day we will have a watch sale).
Could there be a Christie’s Shanghai watch auction by 2020? A Moscow, Rio de Janeiro watch auction? Sure! Why not?! Lastly in terms of prices, we will see many $10m watch sales by 2020. Also Rolex will be selling at $1m very often by that time (today only 1 Rolex has sold over $1m).
Why is Patek the king of the hill? What do they do better than everyone else?
In order to answer this question, let’s take an analogy from the automobile world. Why do Ferraris constantly achieve record results? Well, because like Patek Philippe the product is very strong.
But I think it’s a combination of product but also credibility as a brand. And that you can only build up over decades and centuries (in the case of Patek Philippe).
Patek Philippe, since 1839, never tried to take short cuts in delivering an outstanding watch. They always defended their core values, and have an uninterrupted family ownership for over 80 years.
Lastly, but very importantly, you can bring any watch Patek Philippe has ever made since 1839 and they have the archives and the means to repair it! This gives collectors piece of mind.
Patek Philippe just offers everything a collector wants.
Now I ask Aurel Bacs to answer me spontaneously, either chosen one, the other or both:
- Patek Nautillus or Patek Calatrava? Nautillus
- Chronograph or Minute Repeater? Minute Repeater
- Rolex submariner or Rolex Millgaus? Both
- Nato straps or leather? Leather
- A Ferrari Daytona or Maserati Ghibli? Both?
- A day with P. Newman or S. Mcqueen? Both!
(Credit: Top picture, Christie’s Images Ltd 2013)
