There is one question on everyone’s mind right now: Is there a permanent shift taking place in the collectible car market?

It first became really obvious in the RM Auctions a few months ago, where some 1990s Porsche supercars went for ballistic amounts (like a 993 GT2 Porsche selling for almost $2.5m). It turns out a 40 something billionaire was responsible for the majority of the buying- (you can read our analysis about that auction here). But rather than this being a unique event – this trend seems to be continuing. Just in February this year in Paris at Artcurial – again some 1990s Porsche made some astonishing results. It is not just Porsche that is on fire – Ferrari Supercars are strong too. F50s, an Enzo and La Ferrari are all holding strong in the market. McLaren with its top of the line F1 model is going strong too.  An F1 McLaren today is a double digit million car. 

All this begs the question: Is there a permanent shift taking place in the collectible car market from 1950 and 1960s cars to the super cars of the 1980/990s as well as Enzo? I think it is a timely question to ask.

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When I went to get some expert opinions on this subject – all the most important dealers had this very topic on their mind. In fact I decided to write about this topic also because it was on my mind and I can relate on a personal level to this topic. I own three cars from the 1950s and 1960s and a modern classic including a Porsche 911 (964 Jubilee) from the 1990s and a Ferrari Scuderia from 2008, so I believe that I can also add some insight from a collectors perspective too.

In order to try and look at this topic in more detail in a strategic way I broke it down in three levels. First what is driving this trend? Second is the trend sustainable? And lastly can both categories grow with time or is it a zero sum game: meaning is money that would have gone into the 1950/60s cars instead now going to the Supercars of the 1990s and 2000. 

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The trends driving the interest and values in supercars seem to relatively straightforward at first glance:

1. Changing demographics: a new generation of 40 year olds are buying the cars they grew up with and can relate too but previously could not afford. The 964, 993 series are perfect examples of this.
2. Changing taste: Collectors today want cars that are easier to drive. Easier to understand. Easier to relate too.
3. Drivability: Modern supercars have one big advantage- you can get in and drive them. They are more reliable (James Cottingham).
4. More liquid: Supercars in general are easier to understand, perhaps also more liquid in terms of finding new buyers (Simon Kidston).
5. Climate change: Although only the newest supercars incorporate Hybrid technology – I believe this plays a role. It may be the weakest point however.

To just briefly comment on the above factors. The most important trend seems to be clearly the first: A new generation of 40 something year olds are buying these supercars. Like one Instagram follower (babygorilla81) put it, ‘This new generation collectors now have spare funds and they want to invest in their memories rather than buy cars that they never knew’. I think his comment is superbly accurate: A 30 or 40 year old is buying a 964, 993 or F40 – cars he grew up with rather than buying a from the 1960s which was a decade before these collectors were born.

The second and third factors are exceedingly important too. Collectors today want to get in their cars and drive them. As my Instagram friend and collector (hennabav) noted, ‘Time has become ever more important. People simply want to live and that means just getting in a driving them.’ I think he on to something. 

Try getting into a 275 GTB/4 after it has stood for a few months and just driving it –  you won’t get far. Not only do you have to constantly check the tire pressure but you also have to wait about 30min of driving at low revs before the gearbox and oil pressure warms up and you can push the car properly (this procedure takes place even when you drive the 275 GTB regularly – the car takes forever to warm up). In an Enzo you can just get in and drive it. Same with a 993 turbo lightweight (this car takes less than 5min to warm up). Also the supercars have much better handling – no matter how good you think a Miura SV or 275 GTB is to drive. Not to mention being much safer (have you ever tried breaking a 300SL Gullwing with drum brakes – it is an experience I don’t recommend above 50km/h).

The last factor has do with the market cycle for supercars. This trend has only just started in terms of strong price appreciation. The Miura SV, the Gullwing and the 275 GTB just to name a few have reached a peak in the market cycle (already in 2014) in terms of price appreciation that took place over the last 10 years. The VintageHour had a nice analogy here: It is as if the 1950s and 1960s cars have reached the first floor of a Villa and will stay on that floor for quite a while. The climb was quite steep over the past years and I see the cars remaining at a similar price level over the next few years. However the Supercar cycle is much younger and much fresher. So from a price perspective the Supercars have still some room to run. 

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Is this trend to supercars sustainable? I think on many levels it is.

First you have the demographics that speak strongly in favour of the supercar trend. Then you have the supply equation that works just as strongly for supercars as it does for a Ferrari 275 GTB/4.

Let’s take a look at the numbers. They only made 399 Ferrari Enzos which is roughly how many 275 GTB/4 were made. They made 1300 F40 Ferrari roughly the same as the 300SL Gullwing. But you might say: Well what about Porsche? They made plenty of the 964 and 993. That is true – but if you look what is selling for millions of that series – it is the GT2 and the 964 turbo lightweight or the 993 turbo convertible lightweight. All of those Porsche mentioned were made in extremely limited production. In regards to the Porsche there another factor that collectors value: The 964 and 993 are the last of the air-cooled generation which for many Porsche enthusiasts means also the ‘least real Porsche’ made.

Another benefit supercars have is exclusivity that comes with owning a supercar. Owning a Enzo or La Ferrari will allow access to Ferrari the factory but also access to special events that collectors hold among each other. This is more so the case than with owning a 275 GTB or a Dino. Same with owning an F1 McLaren or P1 – this allows access to the brand and a certain collectors circle that has established itself over the past few years. This trend of brands aligning themselves with collectors and staging cool events is a young phenomenon and it is growing very fast.

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My last question is the trickiest to answer: Can both categories grow over time? Or does the supercar category grow at the expense of the 1960s cars? Or vice – versa?

On this topic even the opinion of the experts I asked are completely divided. 

Here is my opinion for that it is worth: I think both categories can grow over time as both speak to different collector groups that are large enough. Demand will outstrip supply in both supercars and classic cars for the foreseeable future. I even think there is small enough collector category which is growing (which I will put myself into) that will collect in both areas. An F40 or Enzo or even 430 Scuderia will compliment a 1960s Ferrari collection very well as will a La Ferrari. A 993 Porsche turbo or 964 Porsche RS will complement most car collections well.

Simon Kidston thinks both categories can grow together too – especially if you have best of something in either category. Like he says: ‘The greatest cars of any period will remain desirable. The best of anything will always be the best, the most prized and thus the most expensive. If you own the third or fourth best your negotiating position and long term appreciate is more precarious.’ 

There is another factor that will likely help both classic cars and the super cars: Driverless and electric vehicles.

Wether you like it or not  driverless cars and fully electric vehicles will be the norm in the not too distant future. This will help both categories grow long term too. As one Instagram friend put it, ‘ As daily cars become more automated and electrified, I think the very best of the past will find a small but very passionate and loyal following. For that reason I think any important classic will rise in value.’ I fully agree with this man.

I think Steve McHour from TheVintage Hour has another brilliant point: As we move towards electric and self driving cars – it will make collectors appreciate even more the ‘analog’ experience *they will have on the weekends and through car events that will cater to them.  This shift to purity will be even something more special in the future. Both segments, the supercars and classic cars will benefit.

Another point to make: Even if classic cars might be losing steam to Supercars right now, there will always be place for them among connoisseurs. As another Instagramer (vintage crowns) notes that it takes a little bit of ‘being a connoisseur’ to buy a classic car: ‘These are people who recognize the way an air-cooled Porsche door handle opens versus the uncharacteristic modern door handle on a 911. Then there is the fact that everyone can go and buy a new 911 but not everyone can buy a vintage one. You need the cash, class and expertise. These factors will always contribute to fine vintage things being popular and in demand.’ 

*(Analog in terms of raw emotions: Manual gearbox and shifting, petrol, carburettors etc).

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Concluding thoughts

There is no doubt that Supercars have a lot of momentum right now. They are fast, good looking and very drivable. 

I do agree that the demographic argument of the new generation collector is a very powerful argument that is driving up prices of 1990s supercars and the Enzo etc. But before you dismiss the classic cars of the 1950s and 1960s losing interest at the expense of supercars consider the following. I have plenty of 18 year olds correcting me on the slightest mistake on a car I mention. They know exactly the different between a 1960s short nose and long nose 275 GTB and even know where the 250 Competition SWB fuel cap should be sitting on a car that is original.  A 22 yr old instagramer (surelynotparker) wrote me, ‘I am 22 years old and my favorite cars stem from the 1950/60’s because they are pure and not contrived with all sorts of electronic stability etc.’

The young generation and aspirational collectors are extremely knowledgeable. Just because they did not grow up with these cars – that doesn’t mean much. Through the Internet and blogs and car gatherings around the world – they have access to these cars like never before. I have one 19 year old friend who knows more about the 275 GTB/4 than I do.

I personally think that both categories can exist and grow together for a very long time. Steve McHour thinks that similar to what happened with watches in the 1970s with the quartz revolution, might be happening with cars right now. A shift to self driving and electric cars is coming which will be beneficial to all of us in terms of traffic efficiency, environment improvement and less fatalities. But this trend of fully electric cars will make classic cars and super cars even more glorified for a certain collector community.

Driving a classic car in the future will be even more special and a unique experience in the future.

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NB: I would like to thank the following experts: Simon Kidston, James Cottingham, Tom Hartley Jr, The Vintage Hour and my all my friends on Instagram that made some superb arguments and comments.

(Credit: Main picture DK Engineering).

Below a few cool pictures of supercars and classic cars together – provided by Harvey Stanley of DK Engineering. First a 275 GTB Short nose with a La Ferrari supercar.

Second picture is simply awesome. An F40 together with 400 Superamerica and a 275 GTB Ferrari. Great combination of old and new. (Credit: Remi for DK Engineering).

Next picture shows another great shot of old versus new (relatively speaking as the F40 is not that new today). My choice is this picture very easy. The 250 LM please.

The last picture is perhaps my favourite of all.

It shows the most collectable supercar of them all. The McLaren F1 which today is a double digit million dollar car. People like Simon Kidston (who is also biased on this very subject) thinks it could even eclipse the 250 GTO in the next twenty years in terms of value.

I don’t agree with him on this one. The GTO will always have something that the F1 cannot catch up on: Mythos and a stronger history.  The picture also shows another of my all time favourite cars: the Ferrari 250 SWB.