The biggest watch auctions of the year are over. The results tell a story. And it was not all good.

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Lets start with the good news.

The 175th anniversary of Patek sale by Christies was overall quite strong. Several top lots sold well. The worldtime enamel dial (a beautiful watch) achieved a nice result and the first series 2499 in pink gold will make the new owner very happy (he also owns a stunning second series 2499 in Pink gold). Other watches within the Patek sale fared less well. I am thinking of the Cartier signed split seconds (no Cartier certificate did not help this watch). The 1463 split seconds also did not achieve what Christies had hoped for (indeed if this was a superb example Mr. Biver would have not sold this watch).

However overall the results were decent and Christies can be happy with the themed sale, which was its second after the Daytona sale last year.

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What about the overall sale held the next day by Christies?

I was disappointing as far as Rolex was concerned. I had the chance to inspect many watches with an expert watch maker whom I trust completely. In short the quality was simply not there. The results clearly reflected that.

There were many ‘supposedly’ interesting lots that attracted zero interest from bidders. A decent ‘Killy’ with papers (but wrong hands) and original receipt from Zurich-no interest. A 6200 Submariner-the holy grail for submariner collectors-not one single bid. A white dial 6204 Submariner- no bid. A ‘Albino’ hyper rare 6610 Explorer- no single bid.

Many are starting to ask if the Rolex market is weakening? Its a fair question to ask.

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I don’t think the auctions say anything about the state of the vintage Rolex market.

Quite simply: the quality was poor. Poor quality does not sell well. It never has and it never will. Plain and simple. Some Rolex watches were questionable to start with and it did not help that the auction house did not disclose all the facts of certain watches. The many ‘no bids’ simply reflected this.

I think there are some wider problems at hand.

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First- it is harder for auction houses to attract top lots. Why? Because the top collectors don’t want to sell.

What would they do with the money right now? The opportunity cost of money is extremely low. Interest rates are near zero and other asset classes like classic cars also have a ‘supply’ problem. There are no good cars available right now.

The few good watches that were available sold for superb prices. The Panda 6263 Daytona -which was outstanding (see post here) sold for a strong CHF 300′ooo. The fantastic NOS Daytona (see original post here) in Gold sold for an incredible CHF 167′ooo (more than 5x the low estimate). If good watches were offered – the buyers were there. I think the vintage Rolex market is healthier than ever from a demand point of view.

The main problem is supply. To consign exceptional Rolex watches is becoming more difficult for the auction houses.

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I also think another trend is happening which ALL the auction houses should pay strong attention to.

The buyers and collectors, more than ever, are becoming more educated.

They are doing their homework and becoming more sophisticated buyers. Due to the internet and social media like Instagram and other forums (Rolex passion report, VRF, PuristPro) collectors are becoming better informed than ever. Auction houses have to raise their game accordingly or risk that they become ‘extinct’.

The next real test of the vintage Rolex market will be next May when Aurel Bacs together with Phillips (see press release here) will be offering a themed sale on the Rolex Day Date. Regarding the important November auctions that just took place- the collectors have spoken with the hard truth.

The truth this time was of poor quality being offered to collectors who are increasingly quality conscious and demanding the best.

There was a strong mismatch this time around. 

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(Main picture shows a 6263 Daytona NOS (see original listing here). The caseback sticker is completely in-tact. It was symbol of what happened at the auctions. Prices were sky-high for top lots- including this NOS. For the right watches- the prices were exceptionally strong)