2017 was supposed to be the year I started buying vintage Patek Philippe and Cartier.  I had everything in place: My strategy, the finances, and the knowledge. 

As fate would have it, things did not turn out the way I wanted. For one I had some bad luck. Secondly, I did one big mistake that was quite normal and most collectors do. However, I also implemented a strategy that I am extremely proud of and without a doubt make me a better collector than only two months ago.

Allow me to share my experience with you – which you might find useful in your journey to becoming a more experienced collector.

---

At the end of last year, I had a clear goal in mind: I wanted to start buying Patek Philippe and Cartier, two brands I have grown to admire and respect in the vintage watch world. I was lucky that the May auctions gave me some wonderful opportunities for both brands. 

First in May with Phillips, there were two beautiful Cartier watches that I had set my mind on. Now to make a long story short: I did not end up with any of the two. The reason was quite straightforward: I was too uncertain about both models. Not about the quality but about if they really were the models I wanted. Cartier is a vast universe and there are many different shapes and forms. 

So, what happened was normal. If your uncertain about things – you lack confidence in buying and I let both models* go despite now being certain that both would have been a good fit for me (I also think both are still mispriced and undervalued in the market). I let both lots slip past me right under my nose.

So, much for buying Cartier. It was an annoying experience but understandable and I can be forgiven. With Cartier I have still some learning to do until I know what I want and don’t want. I am getting there slowly.

*The Cartier models were 1) a fine dual time Cartier that is rare and unusual 2) a large and fine Cartier Cintree Paris from the 1970s.

---

My experience with Patek Philippe is far more complex, interesting and proved to be perhaps the best learning experience of my career so far.

I want to share two case studies with you: The first one (this post) is an example of what went right, even though it went wrong (don’t worry I will explain what I mean exactly). The second one is a more complex case and in hindsight I committed a big collecting mistake although I also put the blame on an auction house. I will explain this in my next post, case study II.

Let us start off with what went right.

In May Phillips was auctioning a fine 3448 Patek in white gold in HK. I am relatively familiar with this model have written about a rare version with small calendar ring that sold at Christies back in 2016. It was a rare example with luminous hands and dial and had a strong case. I had the chance to study the watch in detail and wrote a report about it here. I also had the chance to inspect the watch and ask some experts what they thought of the case. So unlike the Cartier watches – where I was unsure – I knew exactly the plus and minuses of the 3448 Patek that Phillips was selling.

I did all the homework you can do and set a maximum price I was willing to bid on in my head, something I advise in my post how to successfully buy at auction written last year.

When the lot did come up, I was bidding online. I waited to the bids starting slowly down and we were entering the final few bids. I bid once and then twice and then my opposing bidder bid on exactly the maximum price I was willing to pay. As difficult as it was I had to walk away. I did not bid again and the lot sold- with me remaining the underbidder. Did I do the right thing?

---

In order to answer this question there was one fundamental question I asked myself: Was this a trophy asset?

Because if it was, I clearly did the wrong thing, as I firmly believe in paying up for trophy assets. I honestly think you cannot overpay for them. So, was this particular lot a trophy asset?

Now this is tricky to answer. On one hand this 3448 Patek was clearly a trophy asset. It had a very rare dial configuration, had a superb case and was well documented (the previous owner bought it at auction in 2005). It had a known history which is very valuable in my point of view. However there remained a few unanswered questions with this watch; like the second missing case stamp and the non confirmation of luminous dial on the extract of archives. Not to mention that the dial was not perfect from a condition standpoint (but perversely this is what attracted me to the watch as well – it has a slight imperfection that gave it some honest character). Many collectors would argue that any 3448 Patek in white gold and in acceptable condition is by definition a trophy asset. I might not disagree with that. 

But at the end of the day this watch was good but it was not worth paying any price for. And I had made up my mind of what exactly this watch was worth to me in the end. In the end, it was one bid too little to secure it.

Now- would have one more bid changed my life? No. Could I have afforded one more bid? Sure. In hindsight if I could go back in time and someone would have told me for one more bid it could have been yours – would I have bid again?

Probably. 

But I am convinced that I did the right thing for myself personally even if it meant not achieving my goal of starting to collect Patek. And let’s face it. I took a risk because the 3448 in white gold in superb condition does not come to the market often. 

---

Concluding thoughts: 

I am proud of what I achieved.

I had a goal and set price in mind and stuck to it. Even if it meant walking away from a very rare and attractive watch. What I tried to achieve is the following and collectors can take this as the main ‘take – away’ of this post: In your collecting journey categorise watches into two boxes:

The first box are watches that have no limit. They are absolute holy grails and you can basically leave your paddle up until you outbid every body in the room. Like one expert in the watch world who would prefer to remain anonymous told me, ‘ there are watches were you basically can raise your paddle and keep it up there.’ I personally have bought many watches like this and I don’t regret any one of those purchases. 

The other box are watches were you have to do your homework and set your limit. I put 98% of watches I look at at any given time in this box including the 3448 in white-gold. I was not willing to pay any price and set a very generous amount (above the high estimate as my maximum bid).

I am becoming a disciplined collector and that means losing at auction and accepting defeat. So when I said in the beginning that things went wrong (I ended up with no Patek) even though things went right (I stuck to my limit and did my homework) – you understand now what I mean.

This process of being defeated and being an underbidder and being left with nothing – for some reason has a very good feel to it. Being defeated is part of the collecting journey and will make me better prepared than ever to pounce on the next opportunity should it come.

---

Let us take a look at some of the pictures of the watches I let go. I would love to own all of these in my collection.

We start with Cartier. This large Cintree from the 1970s was a dream and it went to a friend of mine in Asia who has superb taste in watches – he knew exactly what he was doing.

Next a fine and unusual and very rare double time Cartier with two separate crowns. Next time I will listen to my friend Virgnie who has exceptional taste in watches.

And last but not least the 3448 in white gold with luminous dial. I fought for this watch but backed off in the end.

The case was superb on this watch. This is for me the main problem with many 3448. They are over polished and more often than not – this kills the appearance of a 3448. This one was superb.