The scissors are widening ever more in terms of who dominates in vintage watches.
Phillips watches sold more watches than all the other auction houses combined. I think that has many reasons most of which I will save for another post. But I will say this: an ‘A’ team attracts other A players. And they in turn attract the best watches as they have the best network. And it becomes an unstoppable powerful cycle leading to ever more market share and record results. The result is Phillips alone sold 9 lots that were worth over a million Swiss franc watches each (they accounted for 100% of that market).
But I am here to talk about watches and not market share of auction houses. And within watches there is another scissor that is widening. That of Rolex vs Patek. Here are the main trends I saw in vintage watches.
(For part I on the Daytona auction analysis please see here).
- Forza Italia : I have said it many times before and it is worth repeating again. Italy is a dominant force in vintage watches. Some of the best lots at Ultimatum Daytona came from Italy. Some of the biggest buyers of the Daytona auction were Italian. And in other auctions of rare Rolex models – guess what – the Italians were also big buyers. It is simply mind blowing how strong Italy is in the vintage watch market. I can think of no single country that even comes close. In fact if you asked to me to explain in one word why Phillips watches is so successful I would answer: Italy. Plain and simple. The biggest scholars sit there. The best collectors. The biggest dealers are from there. It is a network that is so tight and strong that Italy will remain a very large player for decades to come. And more than ever the Italians were active this auction season.
- Rolex was strong due to Daytona : It helps that there was an abundance of Daytona watches. But there is no arguing that Rolex is the brand that is the most wearable and sought after right now on the vintage side. At the top of my head I can think of 11 Rolex watches that sold for around the CHF 1m (give or take 100k) versus only 3 for Patek (the 3448, small world time and 2499 champagne). And in the top watches sold of all time list, Rolex is creeping ever higher on that list now occupying several spaces (I can think of 4) in the top 10 of most valuable watches ever sold (versus none only a few years ago). Consider this – only 4 to 5 years ago it was very unusual for a Rolex watch to break above CHF1m. Today we are used to seeing this at least 1-2 Rolex break that barrier every auction season. Rolex has caught up to Patek and it might have overtaken it already in terms of brand strength – at least on the vintage side.. I first noticed this trend back in the end of 2012 and it has been getting stronger ever since.
- Rare and unusual watches did well : In a market where we are always seeing the same things, if you had something rare to offer collectors they paid attention. I am thinking of the rare Breguet in gold that was just a dream in real, or the unusual Omega with Farsi calendar.
- Quality attracts fierce bidding : I can think of the first owner Rolex 5512 4L that did superb but also the 425 from Patek that was in incredible unpolished condition. Also the Patek 565 with Breguet with sub seconds attracted fierce bidding. Lastly the superb 6542 Rolex GMT Master in gold deserves praise*. I didn’t see it in person but a few friends I trust did and they told me it was gorgeous. The price of CHF 330k selling for triple its low estimate. That must be close to a record price for a gold GMT 6542.
- Speedmaster catching up : Some blogs commented on the strength of Omega. I saw it differently. The Elvis watch was clearly going to the Omega Museum and the Farsi calendar was just über cool. What I did notice however was that the Speedmaster might be just catching up to other sports models that have history and are rare. A new record for the broad arrow 2915 by an Asian collector is not that surprising. Maybe relative to Rolex sports models, the early Omega Speedmaster with its great history and brand is just catching up.
- The quality and rarity of the auctions as a whole was disappointing : Out of a total of 1200 lots there were maybe 5 lots that really got me excited. Thats not a high percentage (0.4%). Leaving the Daytona watches aside – there was not that much for a collector to get excited about to be honest. The supply of all the auctions houses (Phillips included) was mediocre at best. I know several very large collectors who said they will not even bother coming to Geneva as nothing excited them (one of them did decide to come in the end). There were very few trophy assets and I think it reflects the state of the market of vintage right now. Collectors don’t want to sell right now and it is becoming harder for auction houses to attract top supply. Simply put the best watches are sitting safely in private collections for the time being. So you can’t really even blame the auctions houses.
Right now I see two things happening going forward in vintage watches.
First, the prices paid for true trophy assets and the rest of the watches will widen even further. There will plenty of capital to chase the top lots and new records will continue to be set for the very top 0.5% of watches that are either hyper rare or in top condition. The rest of the market will not grow as strongly. You see this in classic cars and in art or any other collectable asset class.
Secondly, I think the divergence of Rolex vs Patek in terms of prices will continue to increase, even if it is not rational, in the favour of Rolex.
A friend of mine recently argued that we are moving into a world of casualness. And with that goes the according lifestyle. And in this new world of t-shirts and dressing down -Rolex sports watches are just a very good fit. In fact Rolex watches have the advantage that they are extremely wearable – in casual wear but also evening attire. I think it is here where the brand has a big advantage over Patek.
Having said that, I think Patek will hold itself at the very top end of the collecting pyramid – it is the king of complications and it will still dominate at the very high end (think two crown world times, early split seconds 1436 in steel, cushion shaped mono pushers etc). Thankfully Patek also has the Nautilus line which to lean upon. There will always be Patek for the true connoisseur collector but I think it will increasingly be viewed as more of a niche brand. Rolex is becoming more broad based and will continue to take the lion share of new collectors wallets.
Like it or not Rolex is extremely wearable and has this coolness factor that seems to be unstoppable.
My closing thoughts are these: I am constantly asking myself where this will end and how far this divergence will continue?
What I mean is this: right now a decent Rolex Daytona PN Exotic dial can buy you a Patek 2499 fourth series (perpetual calendar chronograph). Or a Patek 2438 or its non waterproof cousin the 2497 perpetual calendar. A superb PN Exotic dial can even get you a Patek 1518 (perpetual calendar chronograph). We are talking the about some of the most collectible and complicated Patek models that were made in less than a few hundred pieces being valued the same as the exotic dial Daytona.**
Is it rational? Not really, at least not from an horological standpoint. But it is the reality of the market right now.
And I don’t think it will change anytime soon.
*(Picture credit: Davidoff Brothers Geneva. Also main picture credit Davidoff Brothers) **At the very top of collectable Daytona we are also talking no more than two handful of Lemon dials, and two handful of John Player Specials or gold 6239 in superb condition so the comparison, at least from a supply side, is a fair one. In terms of complications and importance you can argue that we cannot compare a chronograph to a perpetual calendar or a watch that has even both complications as the 2499 and 1518 does.
Allow me to show you some pictures of what caught my eye.
Let me start with the obvious and get it out of the way. I put my money where my mouth is (after I recommended this watch on my instagram post here) and bought the 425 Patek in RG.
Now this is relatively big news.
Why? Because its been a few years since I last bought a vintage watch. Secondly I tried unsuccessfully last year to buy two trophy Patek watches and both times I was the underbidder. So, as you can imagine, I am thrilled that this 1940 Patek Philippe Ref 425 is my very first vintage Patek.
It is good in size and has a curvex form that fits the wrist very well – see below.
I love rectangular shapes and have long dreamt of owning a Patek with a long signature.
This watch was sold and imported to France (notice the fab Suisse signed dial above) and also carries the French import marks (see below). I shall now forever call this watch, ‘the two owl Patek‘. Picture Credit: Masalux
I am completely in love with this watch and cannot wait to receive it.
The next Patek that caught my eye was this exceptional dual time 2597. This is what a perfect signature that is untouched should look like.
Christies had this very rare Nautilus 3700 for sale via private treaty.
When I was there it seemed that a sale was tentatively agreed.
Staying with Christies – they had a nice and very rare waterproof perpetual calendar 2438 that sold for CHF 378k. They made less than 30 examples of this model in gold (its non waterproof cousin 2497 is less rare).
To say that this reference is undervalued is putting it politely.
I have always preferred the 1518 to the 2499 but on the wrist – the younger Patek 2499 is a winner too.
The last Patek that caught my eye was this beautiful Pocketwatch that will be offered in HK by Phillips.
A perpetual calendar with American calendar display (notice the month comes first). If that was not enough you also get a minute repeater, all for an estimate of $70-100k.
We move on to something more playful.
The serpent from Bulgari has become a real collectors piece. If I was a women….
Staying with the theme of playfulness.
As many of you know I am a big fan of Day Dates. I love them for a multiple of reasons. Here two nice Stella examples that sold at Phillips.
I was madly in love with the pink one. It sold for a very healthy CHF 61k just at the top end of its estimate.
The perfect summer watch indeed.
The next Rolex is among my favourite references. A 6062 Stelline.
This example had a very good and clean dial that looked untouched and original.
If you look more closely you see the textured nature of the dial and two tone appearance (the outside calendar ring having a different surface than the centre of the dial.
This example ended up selling for CHF 630k (which is towards the high end of what top examples in normal gold sell for now). The buyer paid a full price for this example – maybe this model is just slowly moving into a new price band and heading towards the CHF 1m mark.
While on the subject of Rolex, this 6542 Gold GMT Master sold for close to a new record. Thank you Davidoff brothers for this great picture.
The last few watches I show you are from dealers and collectors I saw.
First up this stunning 565 from Patek with Roman numerals. The watch had a wonderful patina and radium hands. (From world_time).
The next watch was a nice and normal 5512 Submariner but with a nice glossy dial. Notice the ‘tulip crown’ indicating it is an early 5512 from circa 1960.
(From Rare and Fine).
But it is the last watch which really blew me away. A fine and very rare day- date with Arabic Hindi numerals and Arabic calendar.
The matching Rolex bracelet was a dream and also correctly dated. Tempus2 (Elvio) from Italy brought this watch along.
Let me show another picture of this watch. Elegant, powerful and rare these special day – dates speak to me personally (my father was Lebanese).
This time Geneva was good to me. I had the courage to follow my heart and bid with confidence.
See you all in November back for the Geneva auctions and wishing you a wonderful summer ahead.
