18x or 1800%. This the difference in amount two collectors paid for the same model of a watch at the same auction house on the same day. It also represents a clear trend in watch collecting right now.
Collectors are recognizing and rewarding exceptional quality with ever-higher prices. Here is my take on the Geneva auctions this May.
- There is a limited supply of top trophy vintage watches coming to the auction market: This is also reflected in the auction results of the auctions houses, the absolute sale numbers are declining slightly y/y (at least at the top two auction houses). Part or most of this decline can be explained by the absence of top quality trophy watches. When you have a limited supply of something and a large demand (the market for vintage watches is growing) then prices explode for the right watches. When top quality does come to the market, the battle is fierce. Multiple world records for were set when the quality was right (6200 Rolex, 8171 Rolex and 5508 references all at Phillips).
- Collectors are recognizing quality: A few examples come to mind. Two gold Rolex Daytona 6239 selling for 100% price difference (Phillips vs Sothebys). Two Rolex small crowns 5508 at the same auction house selling for a 1800% price difference (lower and higher here).
- Collectors strive to be different today: What is most interesting is that if you had a special watch in shape, or brand collectors liked it and paid up. I am thinking of the crash Cartier but also the Cartier with AP movement that belonged to King Hassan II of Morocco (cool provenance and watch). Or the oversize Longines (killer watch), the Asymmetric Patek (thank you Roni), the Daytona near copycat of ref 6269 Daytona (super cool and fun I admit), or the hyper rare Breguet in untouched condition. The platinum Omega with diamonds also was a cool watch (I bet an Italian bought this). With all these watches you can walk into a collectors meeting and you will get noticed and talked about.
- Rationality entering Daytona market: Not a new trend but prices are stagnating or slightly falling for Daytona Rolex sports watches that are manual wound. An important dealer I talked to gave the following reason: Many models of Daytona although rare, are seen as a commodity today. Too many came to the market at once in recent years. Although many of them are rare (like the Panda Daytona PN as an example) they appear not to be thanks to instagram. Their availability on social media (in appearance and for sale) and the fact that every auction house has more than a handful of Rolex Daytona PN and more than 10 Rolex Daytona, at any given time, doesn’t help. The strong rise prices in recent years has backfired somewhat as sellers took advantage of the prices and have flooded the market with them. The market is currently in the process of finding a stable level for Rolex Daytona manual wound models. Automatic Daytona seem to be doing better than manual wound ones, especially when it involves a retailer signature (see Tiffany signed one here that sold at Antiquorum). Long term though I see a good outlook for all Daytona as the DNA and aesthetics and size all speak for this iconic model going forward.
- Patek Nautilus super strong: Many are making the case that the Patek Nautilus 3700 (in both steel and gold) has become Patek’s Paul Newman. Prices were strong across the board and it seems now the entry price for a 3700 is CHF 100k with good examples fetching 150-170k, like this Beyer signed one at Antiquorum. I do believe that the Patek Nautilus, especially the 3700 (but also 3800) has a good future ahead. It has three things that speak for it. One is great design, two the modern production is strong and three – rarity (only 4300 examples) made. Compare this to more than 60’000 Rolex 6263/65. When the gold 3700 from Phillips sold, all hell broke lose on the phones in the room – there was bidding europhia with at least six or seven phone lines bidding. I found vintage Patek (other than Nautilus) to be a little bit weak (1518, 2499) but that was because the right watches did not come onto the market.
- Restorations might be increasingly accepted by the market going forward: With a final price of almost CHF 975’000, the pink gold stelline can be called a successful sale in my view (the way it was hammered was everything but that though). For a watch that was bought for 3x less just in 2015 and then restored (by restored only lume was applied to the dial – the hands and their lume were perfect and original) at some point thereafter – a sale of this price can be clearly called a success. I think in this specific case – a restoration improved the watch and restored the watch to its original condition as best it could. Long a taboo in watches – in classic cars this is long accepted and rewarded even financially. I think in watches if the restoration is transparent in detail (it was transparent in terms of what has been done but not by whom and how)* and improves the watch aesthetically and respects the history and originality of the watch (which in this case it did in all areas) – the market will accept it going forward. The sale of the 6062 pink was a first step in acknowledging this. I also congratulate Christies and all the auction houses for stepping up their transparency.
- Spectacular watches were offered outside of the auctions: While this is nothing new- there always has been dealing going on simultaneously with the auctions, I noticed it this time more excessively. I think there is a slight power shift going between the auction house to the collector/dealer, in favour of the collector/dealer, due to the rise of Instagram and social media. I will be writing a post on this shortly what I mean exactly.
In summary I found the auctions to be healthy and relatively strong.
There was much chatter among the dealers that the prices are softening and many were worried about how the auctions would perform. To that end I think everyone was happy that prices were healthy and for the most part rational. There is certainly more interest than ever in vintage watches right now. There were more than 500 people in the room at Phillips (something even Aurel admitted he never saw before) and nearly 1000 bidders online which is also a new record.
In terms of brands Rolex remains the king right now, in terms of prices achieved but also in terms of interest. Multiple world records were achieved in several Rolex references including 5508 submariner, 6200 submariner and 8171 Padelone (all at Phillips watches it should be mentioned).
There are two other points worth mentioning to show how strong the appeal of Rolex is right now. First it appears that one owner of one of the leading independent brands bought that small crown sub 5508. That is quite a big compliment to Rolex design, as his brand is normally more associated style wise with Patek. Secondly another well known collector and tour de force in watches (who I normally would associate more with Patek) has recently acquired two vintage Rolex watches.
There is no doubt, that Rolex with its timeless appeal, strong design, and just incredible history is attracting the worlds best known watch figures that want to collect the history of the ‘brand with the crown‘.
On a last note I will say this. For a few years now it has remained the same with vintage watches. If you have top quality, collectors will drive prices to new records. Prices for mediocre quality is stagnant and if you had something different in shape (Breitling Superocean, Cartier crash, Patek asymmetric) collectors paid way over the high estimate.
Let me show you some pictures of the Geneva weekend.
*(For more on this discussion follow the thread there).
For my very first time – I was lucky to get a room with a view in Geneva (Thank you for the upgrade Hotel Beau Rivage).
I tell you- it makes a worlds of difference, at least for me.
The first watch I saw was at Antiquorum. A rare sector-dial IWC with beautiful two tone structure.
It fetched a healthy CHF 18k – if I recall correctly.
Next up was Sothebys.
This day-date was interesting as green in all variations are among the rarest dials (this was a so called Apple green).
Day dates might not be rare watches (depending on the dial color and type) but they have one large advantage over other Rolex lines: there are an incredible amount of dial variations to choose from. Sold towards high end of estimate.
Attend auctions and look at watches.
This watch below is proof that you should go to auctions and view watches because they are often more attractive in real than in the catalogue.
The case was platinum but bracelet white gold, leading me to believe that the watch was not born this way. Nonetheless a rare ‘oxblood Stella‘ platinum day-date. It sold, not surprisingly, well below its high estimate, with end result of CHF 125k.
The next watch was one of my favourite of the entire auction season.
Not because the quality was that good (it wasn’t) but rather the design of the watch and brand. A rare triple calendar AP retailed by Cartier.
The Enamel print on the dial still in – tact below. I do like the moon phase too.
I asked the watch to be taken out of the case and the movement was signed Audemars.
Royal Provenance belonging to HRH King Hassan II of Morocco no doubt added to its appeal (see his initials below).
Sold for a strong CHF 206’000 – slightly above its high estimate.
Staying with Cartier – this nice example with stiff bracelet and sold for slightly above low estimate at CHF 125k.
Ended up selling to a prominent dealer / collector based in California.
Time for lunch.
A friend told me to try the pasta or risotto at the Four Seasons. It was superb but had an equally superb price tag. A hefty CHF 45 for the tiny portion. Well worth it though.
Next up I headed to Phillips.
I absolutely fell in love with this Vacheron with crab lugs and textured guilloche dial. It went for a paltry CHF15k (in my view this watch should be worth substantially more).
Congratulations to the buyer. A killer watch for a bargain.
Want to see what a perfect moon phase looks like? Untouched 8171 Padelone that set a new world record at CHF 975k.
I also really liked this 4240 black dial from Vacheron.
It sold for CHF 36k, a fair to modest price (still above high estimate of 30K) given its rarity – the black dial believed to be unique.
Remember when I said that if you had something special, it sold super well?
A 6265 with a dial that resembles the 6269, presumably made for a customer at special request. CHF 368k.
While on the topic of Daytona – this attractive PN was seen at Christies.
For me the most attractive Panda is one with steel bezel as it allows the black dials to float more freely.
Sold for CHF 362’000. This remains in my view one of the most attractive steel Daytona out there.
Related to Daytona: the online bidding at auctions is no longer only for small lots. This JPS ended up selling for CHF 800k and was bought online.
The last watch that caught my eye at Phillips was this wonderful Superocean by Breitling. One of the most beautiful diving watches ever made.
Ofcourse it sold above it high estimate. More than double the high estimate. CHF 36k.
I mentioned that some exceptional watches were for sale outside the auctions.
We start with this very rare and extremely attractive honeycomb 1953 Rolex 6098 star dial.
I have written a report about star dials, this example the most attractive honeycomb I have seen so far in my collecting career.
The dial white and flawless without marks or dark shadows (a problem for these watches often). Below in natural sunlight with no filter.
Or what about this beautiful light blue Stella day – date? The perfect summer watch.
While standing outside at Phillips I got to see a watch that slipped under my radar.
A beautiful pink gold Ovettino (Bubbleback) that was found by a collector at Antiquorum just that morning and already paid for. A dream watch and well spotted to the very young collector. Sold for CHF 16k.
My next stop was to Christies. Where I saw the pink gold 6062 stelline – the top lot.
I thought it was an attractive watch overall. The quality of the dial in terms of texture and two tone (unrestored) and the quality of the lume (restored on the dial) was very good.
I think at CHF 975k, all parties can be somewhat pleased (I didn’t like the way it was auctioned though but that is another story).
In case you spent all your money at Geneva, Christies has some goodies for you in New York. Like this Linz PN Daytona.
Or one of my favourite Patek watches, the 2438-1.
I quickly looked at Christies jewellery and came across this beautiful Cartier cosmetic mirror case for powdering.
If I had a girlfriend and it was her birthday – this is what I would get.
My last stop was to Koller auctions, which always has little jewels that are often overlooked.
Like this beautiful and very rare Piccolino Rolex Ref 3055 with black and pulsation dial. This is extremely rare variant of an already rare watch. The dial seemed glossy too.
The case was strong with good hallmark to the back and if I recall it had a very reasonable estimate of around CHF 16k.
I will be taking a look at this watch closely when I am back in Zurich in June.
I look forward to seeing everyone in November again.
