The biggest vintage watch auctions that take place every year in November in Geneva are over. I noticed a few interesting trends that I would like to share with you.

---

Patek’s brand especially in vintage was exceptionally strong.

If the past few years belonged to vintage Rolex taking center stage in terms of price developments – the auctions in November somewhat reversed this trend.

Patek stole the show not only in becoming the most valuable wristwatch to ever sell at auction (it was a modern one) but also due to the strength of prices achieved in the vintage area. What was most interesting is that the perpetual calendar chronograph (what Patek is so well known for) was not responsible for the strength (if you exclude the one- off 2499 first series champagne dial).

Yes the usual suspects like the 2499 and 1518 did well but for the most part they sold only within their estimate. A good example was the exceptional fine pink gold 1518 which should be a CHF 6-800’ooo watch depending on condition (see details).

---

What really stole the show within Patek were the time only watches and simple chronographs. 

Time only watches in any white metal did well like the 2526 Platinum or 530 Calatrava. Chronographs with unique configuration like the 1463 with unique hands were fiercely fought for (I will dedicate a post to the battle that took place for this watch which was most interesting to observe from a psychological perspective) but also a seldom seen split seconds in steel was fiercely contested for.

It seems collectors made a conscious effort to seek out rare models. To see the strength of Patek look only at Christies press release (eight of the ten top lots sold were Patek). When was the last time you remember this happening? Yes – you could argue that this was also due to a lack high quality Rolex sports models ,which were noticeably absent from all the auctions this November, but I still think that the strength of Patek is stand alone factor.

Looking at where the buyers were paying strong prices within Patek – it was mostly for unique one off rare models. Rarity seems to be back in fashion.

---

The second trend I saw was a slight weakness in Rolex vintage models.

The mighty Paul Newman Daytona – that was a sure ticket for many collectors to buy – seemed to be showing some weakness. Most Paul Newman models sold within their estimate and sometimes far below the high estimate (I can’t remember when I saw that happen last).

This perhaps has two reasons. First and importantly while examples were not of poor quality – they were not exceptional examples either. And this for sure played a role. When the examples were exceptional – they were not fresh to the market and have been recently sold at auction a few years ago (a case in point the Hermes Paul Newman sold at Phillips).

Another problem in my opinion was supply.

There were more than twenty Paul Newman models available (not to mention all the other Daytona) and it became difficult for the collector to differentiate what just simply good and what was outstanding. The only time a Daytona fared better was when a rare model sold like the Tiffany signed 6239. Other lines within Rolex fared no better. An exceptionally rare Rolex GMT Master 6542 bakelite in Gold failed to reach the high estimate (see details here) and an extremely rare and fine GMT double swiss underline (see post here what makes the Rolex GMT double swiss so rare) that is easily a $50-75’ooo watch only fetched CHF 37’500 – exactly the mid-estimate range (see details here).

There were a few bright spots within Rolex. One was the pre-daytona – especially the 6238. A simple steel version with silver dial (the least sought after) sold for  an outstanding CHF 76’ooo – almost four times the low estimate (!) – while the rarer 6238 black version available at Christies- which was a fine example sold for the high end estimate of CHF 100’ooo (see details here)  –  clearly reaching Paul Newman territory. In fact one of the rarest Paul Newman the 6262 sold for exactly CHF 100’ooo – the same as the 6238 black dial (see details here).  

It seems within Rolex too – collectors are finally seeking out rarity again.

---

This explains the strong interest in Pre -daytona 6238 and the slight weakness in Paul Newman and Daytona in general where supply is more plentiful.

I have been arguing for some time that the Pre-daytona 6238* is undervalued and under appreciated. The 6238 dial with the integrated tachymeter printed on the dial and not the bezel (as with the Daytona) is a piece of art and more complex to make (see post here). 

The pre-daytona 6238 is a very rare highly sophisticated chronograph from Rolex and the market is realizing this finally (a 6238 black dial gold 14k reached a world record price earlier this year- see post here). Rolex also showed strength in time only – enamel models that are mostly unique pieces. Those watches were in strong demand with all enamel models far exceeding even the high estimates (like this example here).

---

Lastly the complicated moon phase models from Rolex fared also well.

This has presumably two reasons. First both examples offered at Phillips were exceptional, the 8171 and the 6062 were extremely high quality examples and today quality attracts top prices from collectors. Secondly we must not forget both moon phase models from Rolex 8171 and 6062 were produced in very small numbers. This leads us back to rarity. More than ever today collectors are better educated and knowledgable and are seeking out quality and rarity. This was very evident in Novembers auctions. So in a way we are back to basics in watch collecting.

Not all boats will be lifted by the rising tide.

---

So is the vintage market really weakening?

The headline figures suggest not.

Record price for 6062 Rolex. More than a CHF 1 million paid for a enamel dial- time only Rolex. Three million plus for a steel Patek split seconds Chronograph. A nice price for the first series 2499 Patek. But if you look at where the strength was in the November auctions- it was mostly for rare time-pieces. The broader market of 5512 Submariner, 1675 GMTs, 2526 (excluding white gold), 570 Pateks, Daytonas (including Paul Newman), well the prices there were not that strong. Please excuse me if I use an analogy from the financial markets-but it is fitting. The advance decline ratio** for vintage watches is worsening.

What do I mean by that? Well I see the market being supported by fewer and fewer high quality watches. To put it simply – the best watches are sitting in collections and will not come to the market in the foreseeable future.

It is the same with vintage cars. With art. This will force buyers to become even more selective and when that limited supply of high quality comes to the market it will be fiercely fought after (like with the 6062 Stelline Rolex). The rest will fare just average.

Is this a sign of healthy market? I am not so sure.

---

*In fairness and for full disclosure I or my trust own a 6238 pre – daytona black dial.

** The advance decline (AD) ratio is one very useful metric to measure the health of a financial market index. Looking at the AD ratio helps an investor understand if the market is being supported by a limited number of companies or a broad number. The ratio is calculated by dividing the number of advancing shares by declining shares. A high ratio usually indicates broad market strength while a low ratio indicates a narrowing strength. For vintage watches, vintage cars and art I see a low ratio – meaning the collectible market is being supported by less and less high quality supply.

NB: Picture credit Christies