The 3448 is one of my favourite models by Patek.
The puristic case design by Gerlach and perfect layout of the dial makes, it in my opinion, the best perpetual calendar ever made, by any brand. The 3448 has long been very high on my radar screen, especially the white gold version. I wrote about the last one for sale at Phillips here and also the small calendar ring version here. So, when a platinum one turns up for auction, at Phillips, of course I take notice.
On one hand I see why some purist collectors might not be bidding on this watch, even if they are looking for a white 3448. Conversely I also see this particular 3448, as a unique opportunity for a collector interested in owning something rare and beautiful.
Let me explain.
(The re-cased Platinum 3448 offered by Phillips and seen in Singapore recently).
The 3448 is a rare model (less than 600 were produced), made in different series. Most were cased in yellow gold, very few (less than 100) were made in white gold (with some even having luminous) and two were made in rose gold. Technically none were made in platinum, meaning not one with a platinum case ever left Patek Philippe during regular production of the reference.
Rather in the 1990s, an owner of white gold model, requested his 3448 to be cased in platinum. Because he was a friend of the Stern family, his wish was granted officially by Patek Philippe. But since the reference was discontinued in the 1980s there was only one solution; to have this case made new again. Patek Philippe turned to JP Hagmann, a renowned case maker for Patek. The owner also decided to have a NOS, but period correct, dial put in the watch given the previous owner had lived in South East Asia and the humidity took its toll on the original dial (which is included with the watch).
The result is the following: The watch being offered is an original 3448 movement perpetual calendar made in 1966, now put in a case made in 1997 by a different case maker (the original case-maker was Gerlach) and the watch carries also a different dial. The original dial however from 1966 is included in the sale of this watch (so effectively the owner gets two dials).
What should a collector make of all this?
Well thankfully we have a few comparisons to make in the car world and we can analyse how collectors have re-acted in that area.
I compare this 3448 Patek to an Aston Martin DB4 GT sanction II version.
What I mean by this, is that Aston Martin set aside four DB4 GT models called sanction II models (19 were actually built out of 23) that were never built in the 1960s but rather was given the go – ahead to build them in the 1990s. This project was officially done by Aston Martin and so these additional 4 cars built in the 1990s are very collectable today – just not as collectable as the real deal in the 1960s. In 2012 Bonhams auctioned one of four sanction cars and it fetched GBP 1.2m. An original car from the 1960s was worth approx GBP 4-5m at that time. In 2015 so just 3yrs later an, original DB4GT sold for GBP9.2m.
My point is the following: The market clearly differentiated between one built in the 1990s and the original 1960s one. And it is the same with the Platinum Patek 3448.*
In 2009 this very watch that Phillips is auctioning was sold at Christies for CHF 783’000. Consider that a RG one that was born with the case and dial sold for CHF 2.1m in 2012. If the Phillips 3448 was born with a platinum case and original dial – the estimate would be not be CHF 500’000 – 1m but rather CHF 2-4m today.
*(admittedly one could argue that a direct comparison is tricky because the 3448 retains the original ‘engine’ or movement and the Sanction II cars had the engines built new from scratch but period correct).
In my opinion any collector looking to buy this 3448 has to ask himself a few questions.
First: is he comfortable owning a unique piece but with a re-made case 30 years later and a dial that was not born with the watch but original to the model and period correct (the original dial is also included with the watch)? Second: What happened to the white gold case? Third, if the collector is comfortable, what price is he prepared to pay?
I can offer some help on the last point by thinking out loud and how I would approach this.
First I think Phillips valuation of the watch at CHF 500’000 – CHF1m is broad – but absolutely correct. If you consider that a mint white gold (WG) Patek 3448 today is worth roughly CHF 650-850’000 – what is a Platinum one worth? Well there is no correct answer and every collector will see it different. Some collectors (and I might include myself in this camp) will be hard fought to pay a significant premium to a mint WG 3448 at CHF650-850’000, that was born that way, possibly even have a original certificate or small upside down calendar numbers.
Other collectors will see the opportunity to own something unique with the platinum case (even if there is another platinum model with sapphire indexes out there). Again given a rose gold today is probably worth around CHF 2.5m -3m today – a platinum one still represents a nice discount at even CHF 1m all in, even if the platinum case was done in the 1990s.
To the collector who must have this watch at all costs I offer the last piece of information. He can take some consolation that a bidder paid already CHF 783’000 back in 2009.
If only we knew if he overpaid, underpaid or paid a fair price at the time. Soon we will find out.
The 3448 in Platinum will be auctioned off at Phillips on May 13th, 2018 in Geneva.
Main picture credit: JP.
(For the last 3448 in white gold that sold at Phillips please see my in-depth report here).
Below some additional pictures of the 3448 being auctioned off at Geneva. All picture credits Phillipswatches.
A superb shot by Phillips watches of their 3448 in platinum.
The case back with engraved JP Hagmann who made the new case in 1997. Notice also the 950 stamp for platinum.
