The big watch auctions are over and there have been some collectors that are pointing out strength in vintage Rolex sports watches and weakness in certain vintage Pateks, something I also pointed out in my analysis of the auctions. I argued that it Rolex seemed strong because also the right Patek models were not present.

This will all change when on May 30th in Hong Kong, a Patek will be sold that can stand its ground against any Rolex sports model and then some.

It is a 1974 Patek 3448 in white gold ‘luminous’.

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There are very few unicorns in the vintage watch world that are also timeless in my opinion. 

The 3448 however fits the bill for a timeless unicorn in all its various series, but especially when it appears in white gold.

 

Patek introduced the 3448 in 1962 as the first automatic perpetual calendar. To remind our readers the 3448 was made in four series irrespective of metals. Less than 590 examples were made with most examples being cased in gold, two are known in pink gold and less than 100 are thought to be made in white gold (with 50 known examples to the market according to Christies Lot notes for the 3448 sold in May 2016). Early series (except for the first) are with a bead or pearl dial – something I find extremely attractive and is also the example that Christies sold in 2015.

The watch that Phillips is selling belongs to the last generation dials made of the 3448. Let us look at it in more detail.

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Watch history

It is not the first time this particular 3448 ‘luminous‘ appeared at auction.

Back in 2005, so nearly 12 years ago this very white gold 3448 sold for a very strong CHF 316’000 against an estimate of CHF 120 – 160’000 (so nearly double its high estimate). The watch was sold in 2005 by then the original owner who had purchased it in Geneva in 1975 (the watch was made in 1974). It thus came with the original box, original certificate and original instruction manual (all of which the watch still retains today). See below.

 

If we look more closely at this watch you notice something – not many 3448 have. Luminous hands and luminous dots for 5 minute markers on the dial. In fact I have never seen another 3448 have this (although apparently according to Phillips there are three known watches). Because of this, the dial layout is slightly different. Do you see how the the hour markers are positioned further away from the dial?

Compare it to the white gold example below that Christies sold last year.

 

Comment on the luminous dial

Now the 3448 is a perpetual calendar and its sleek timeless design is understated and elegant. As Christies had once stated in their lot notes, ‘it is a paragon of understatement’.

That fact that this particular 3448 has luminous hands makes it all the more attractive to me, it adds that sporty touch and ruggedness that makes this watch special in my view.

Now normally when a dial has a special feature, it is stated clearly ‘in the extract of the archives’. For example, in this case, it would say something like ‘luminous hands’ under dial type. But in this case the extract makes no mention of the particular dial. What we do know is that the watch came from the original owner in 2005 and the watch already back then, in 2005 looked like the watch today as in the picture below. 

So we can make two assumptions.

First is that perhaps the watch was indeed born like this but the extract makes no mention of this particular dial. Second scenario is that the former owner (who was the first owner) changed the dial and added luminous to improve legibility. This would not be the first time an owner of a Patek would add to luminous to enhance readability.

However since the first owner seemed meticulous about the watch and kept every single piece of paper including the instruction manual – this change surely would have been recorded and kept as part of the overall record of the watch. 

Although I think the luminous dial was probably born with the watch, we cannot be certain that this is indeed the case. It is unfortunate that there is no official mention of the luminous on extract of archives nor on the certificate of origin (see pictures below).

Below the original certificate for the Patek 3448 which will be sold at Phillips. No mention of the luminous dial.

(Credit: Phillips watches).

The extract of archives also does not mention anything about the luminous dial.

Normally special additions like luminous are mentioned under dial type. In this case it just says type of dial: Not mentioned.

(Credit: Phillips watches).

Comment on the case

What is interesting is that Phillips lot notes states that this watch is ‘without question’ unpolished.

I got a chance to look at this watch closely and talk to some experts that are far more knowledgable than me in terms of case polishing on watches, especially on Patek Philippe. Here is what we found:

While the case is without a doubt quite strong and I did find a nice crisp hallmark on the lug (see picture below), in my view the case has been subjected to a very slight polish before. I base this statement not on my own expertise but rather on numerous experts who all agreed that an untouched case looks different. Also if you compare the case of the Christies watch that sold last year and the present luminous watch you see a slight difference – I let you the reader decide which watch has fatter lugs – see picture below.

While we are the subject one more fact to consider: Most 3448 Pateks have left the factory with two hallmarks, one on the lug and another one on the case. 

In this particular watch I could not find the second hallmark on the case. See hallmark below on bottom right lug. In fact Phillips confirmed to me that there is no second hallmark to be found on the watch. They also stated that they have sold some vintage Pateks with no second hallmarks before (the statement to be honest does not mean much in my opinion).

The case overall is strong though, and if the watch received any polishing it is ever so slightly.

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Overall thoughts on the watch and what it could achieve at auction

The 3448 in white gold is one of the all time great watches and because of their rarity they don’t come up for sale very often. When they do – collectors pay close attention and I cannot remember the last time a watch came up and went unsold.

The last superb 3448 that sold was a trophy example, and it fetched a strong CHF 629’000 by Christies in 2016. It was a very rare version with small upside down calendar ring so it that respect it is not really comparable. Also the watch had a more attractive dial variant (at least in my view) of the pearl or bead minute markers – usually found in early examples of the 3448 (even though the watch was dated also 1974). The case and dial were extremely strong and in this respect the full price paid was deserved.

I am no expert in appraising Patek Philippe watches and their worth and am just thinking out loud like a collector who wants to make the best decision for himself, in possibly securing a future 3448.

Let us assume that because of the uncertainties we have with this watch (unpolished versus polished, second missing case mark, no mention of luminous on extract of archives) that we apply some sort of discount to the superb 3448 sold last year.

Furthermore let us consider that this watch is not perfect because of the dial, it seems that moisture left its trace on the watch at 7 o’clock. Also according to the condition report of Phillips – there are other moisture marks on the dial at 3 and around the edge of the dial. Also the luminous seconds hands is later relumed. So the watch is far from perfect in terms of the dial at least. Let us use a discount range of 20-40%*.

If we apply a minimum 20% discount – then we come at a value of CHF 500’000 all in (or CHF 410’000 hammer) which is exactly the high estimate that Phillips officially has for this watch. If we apply a 25% discount – we arrive at a valuation of CHF 471’000 all in, and a 30% discount – we arrive at CHF 440’000. A 35% leads us to CHF 408’000, and a 40% discount leads us to CHF 377’000 all in (or CHF 308’000 hammer).

In this respect the estimate that Phillips has of CHF 300 – 500’000 is within an acceptable and accurate range.

One more fact to consider: In May 2016 Phillips sold another 3448 in white gold for CHF 353’000. That particular 3448 was polished and the condition overall was no where near as attractive as the 3448 that is being sold today. Not to mention that the 3448 being sold today has the original certificate, box and instruction papers. 

So in that respect the estimate of CHF 300 – 500’000 is a very good range with which to view the 3448 being sold at Phillips.

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Closing thoughts

I personally find this 3448 extremely attractive. It has this killer combination of ruggedness and sportiness but extreme elegance that so few Pateks carry today.  Furthermore this watch looks so good on my wrist. See pictures below.

Do some of the uncertainties surrounding this watch irritate me? Ofcourse they do. Do I still find the watch attractive? You bet I do. Even if the watch was not born with this luminous and the case was polished – this particular 3448 is still extremely attractive. At the end of the day – this watch was barely polished and the luminous (if original or not) adds an extremely attractive element to this watch. At least to me. If you ask me if I prefer a 3448 with or without luminous- well after seeing this watch my answer is clear: Luminous wins hands down for me.

In the end this watch will find a new home, that is almost guaranteed. It is only a question of what price. And it is this precise question that I am also still trying to figure in my head.

*Please accept that this exercise is far from suitable to all collectors and might not be how some collectors go about how to value a watch. Also I am assuming that the CHF 629’000 paid in 2016 was a rational price and market correct price for the watch which may or may not be the case.

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Let us look at this 3448 in more detail and how it looks on the wrist. We start with a table shot of the watch next to a 530 steel.

Another closeup of the 3448.

The watch looks superb on the wrist. The leather band Phillips put on is perfect in my view and matches the luminous very well.

Let us look at the case more closely. It has sharp angles and is a strong case overall.

One last wrist shot of this timeless icon – that will undoubtedly find a good home.