Thematic auctions are very good for auction houses. Often less so for collectors. Let me explain.

Auction houses like to put on thematic auctions. It resonates well with collectors who like themes and collectors often end up paying healthy premiums to secure a lot. We saw this with the Reverso themed collection put on by Antiquorum in 2011, with the Daytona auction in 2013 and Day Date auction in 2015. The sell through rate for all those auctions neared 100% and collectors paid healthy premiums on almost every lot. The auction houses love it because it is good for their bottom line. Unless collectors are very smart – they often (but not always) end up paying more than they should. However collectors can often win too. 

But in order to win at thematic auctions you need to employ a different strategy than at regular auctions with 2-300 lots.

In exactly one week Phillips will host their ‘winning Icons’ auction in NY. For this sale, Phillips choose only 50 watches that have proved to be icons of watchmaking.

A collector looking to buy a watch at a half way reasonable price at such an auction needs to be clever. Especially at Phillips, which has managed within a short time span to establish themselves as the leading auction house for high end vintage watches. The biggest collectors in the world with also the deepest pockets will be paying close attention to each of the 50 lots. Therefore, this is how I would go about thinking about this auction as a collector.

My strategy for Phillips would be very simple.

I would divide the auction lots into trophy watches that are must haves. Phillips is very good at giving collectors these kind of watches. And then I would focus on watches that might be overlooked by the market at this moment in time for whatever reason. I would eliminate all the other watches that are beautiful but can be found elsewhere and come for auction regularly. 

Use Phillips market leading position to your advantage.

Phillips as the market leader today, can simply get hold of watches that otherwise would be impossible to find. As a collector, I want to use their strength in obtaining impossible watches to my advantage. This is why I would look at watches like the 1958 Audemars 5516, the fantastic oversized 1927 Cartier Cintree in platinum and the rare 1958 Rolex Killy 6236 with gold embossed square markers for the hour. 

What do all these watches have in common?

First they are trophy watches. They belong to the most collectible watches that rarely appear on the market. The Audemars 5516 is the first ever perpetual calendar with leap year function of which only 9 of this reference were made (six of which sit in the Audemars private collection). The chances of another one coming to the market soon? Slim. Similarly the oversized Cartier in platinum is a watch that you will not see in a similar form anytime soon. Only 3 are known and this is the best example. According to Aurel it is maybe the most important Cartier watch ever to come to market. The Killy may be the most common among the group of watches mentioned, but for that it is wins the trophy of best condition among all three. The case and dial are just perfect. The bi-color dial is marvellous and I the gold embossed hour markers are a piece of art. 

The second thing these watches have in common: they are overlooked by the market.

The Killy is a superb complication by Rolex (the only chronograph with triple calendar) but today prices (for those watches in steel) don’t reflect the rarity it deserves (only in May did Phillips sell a 6236 for CHF 160’000). The market will eventually come back to appreciate the Killy for the rarity and complication it deserves. Similar with the oversized Cartier. For a watch of such importance and rarity – prices should be even higher than they are by the market today. The estimate by Phillips is correct but let us see if there is demand at that level. So far the market for early Cartier tanks is undervalued. Handmade by Cartier artisans, in arguably the best period of Cartier, this early tank (they were introduced in 1921 only 6 years prior to this watch being made) is a landmark of watchmaking. And the Audemars 5516 – fetches prices of a good 1518 by Patek today. However in numbers the Audemars is 30x more rare than a 1518 by Patek and Audemars already in the late 1950s was making a leap year function, something it would take Patek another 25 years to introduce – with the 3450 in 1982. If the 5516 had Patek signed on the dial and movement – we would be talking about a high seven figure watch. 

In Part II I will look at all 50 watches in person and choose my favourite ones irrespective of collectability and importance and comment on prices achieved. 

(Credit main picture: Phillipswatches / Fabio Santinelli).

by Edmond Saran