What should collectors and followers of vintage watches expect for 2016? I asked five experts in different fields of the vintage market, for their opinion on what to expect.
Benjamin Clymer, Editor & founder of Hodinkee and collector
2016 represents the most insecure time in recent memory for the watch world. We will see an ever growing disparity between contemporary watches and vintage watches, and then an equally disparate range between common and “out of condition” vintage watches, versus those special, rare, and mint “in condition” vintage watches.
I fully expect us to see more and more world records at every auction, while at the same time seeing many previously “hot” watches fall flat because of decreased interest in modern production pieces, or new knowledge about just how many were made.
The next twelve months will certainly be exciting!
Aurel Bacs, Founder of Bacs & Russo and Senior consultant to Phillips watch department
Thanks to an ever increasing level of knowledge within the collector’s community, we continue to see fierce competition for those watches ticking every box and, assuming that great pieces will come to the market, record prices for the finest examples, regardless of the brand or price level.
The one thing a watch needs to represent is quality, expressed by rarity, condition and originality, in order to be considered a hot item.
We may not see an increase in terms of number of buyers given the uncertainties around the world, but those collectors who remain active will up their game as they understand that the finest pieces become rarer and rarer.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see softer prices for contemporary “commodity-style” watches where the supply is likely higher than the demand. In the arena for great vintage pieces, where the opposite is the case, I expect to see the values to go up, not only for the gold-standards of the industry like Patek Philippe and Rolex, but also many other historical manufacturers like Vacheron Constantin, Audemars Piguet, Longines, Jaeger LeCoultre and IWC.
Davide Parmegiani, Super-dealer and collector
I actually see a strong market with a good demand for rare quality timepieces.
Today the market is very knowledgeable and most of the customers look for the best quality only. This has pushed up the prices of the best quality watches creating a big price difference with the standard quality watches – that are suffering slightly.
Anyway I see growing demand all over the world so we can hope for a safe and good 2016.
John Goldberger, Author, collector and connoisseur
The interesting trend for the 2016 will be that many records will be broken at the auctions.
For the vintage rare Patek Philippe timepieces with good quality, the Geneva watch company will return to be the king of the market.
Many new collectors want to know what brands now will gain value with time, it is an excellent question! My answer is simple: when the design is strong, beautiful and the timepiece has great quality and is timeless, in the end who cares which company made the watch!
John Reardon, Patek Expert, Head of watches Christies
The future of vintage watch collecting is very bright.
All indications point to a growth market for quality pieces that are surfacing at auction and from dealers around the world. One thing is exceptionally clear – condition and rarity are ruling the day. However, scholarship is the underlying factor in determining condition and rarity – and the increased level of scholarship over the past decade may be the biggest indicator that are market still has room to grow.
The vintage collecting community, including collectors, dealers, auction houses, bloggers, and even the watch brands are sharing more information that is pushing the limits of horological scholarship in terms of what truly makes a ‘good’ watch. This is resulting in a larger collecting base of buyers who are increasingly more comfortable in buying confidently at unprecedented price levels.
Since the supply is low for quality watches, and the demand is increasing, a surprising trend has developed in recent times. It’s no longer a market dominated only by Patek Philippe and Rolex on the vintage front since there are not enough top tier watches to satisfy the demand of collectors. It is now just as likely that a top lot comes from Audemars Piguet, Vacheron Constantin, Longines, Universal, Omega etc.
No one can accurately predict the future of watch collecting but it seems a sure bet that our market is still in its early stages, decades behind some of the other more traditional art markets in its evolution. Vintage watch collecting is still in its relative infancy – and there is no doubt that many surprises are ahead for us in 2016 and in the years to come.
(picture credit: Jason Fried)
